81% say the economy will play a “major role” in their vote choice, and 80% say inflation. The economy and inflation are the top issues for voters. (There’s a minus-0.80 correlation coefficient, according to the Washington Post’s Philip Bump.) Biden’s approval rating has been in near-perfect inverse sync with fluctuations in gas prices.
And while gas prices, a daily real-world guage of inflation for many voters, have fallen modestly in recent days, they remain up since mid-September. On the economy, recent data have continued to show that the Fed and the Biden administration have been unsuccessful in taming inflation, while their policy moves have stoked fears of an impending recession. On Tuesday, JOE BIDEN announced that his first bill to Congress next year would be one codifying Roe. The White House has noticed how the Dobbs effect has faded. We saw this dynamic repeatedly in the big Senate and gubernatorial debates this week in Georgia, Ohio, Florida, and elsewhere. Neutralizing abortion has allowed many Republicans to raise the salience of crime and immigration. On abortion, ever since the Kansas referendum defeating an abortion ban, Republicans in tough races have abandoned or downplayed hardline stances and refocused attention on attacking their Democratic opponents as extreme. Two big issues seem to be driving the reversal: The poll confirms the dramatic shift from the late summer, when the Dobbs decision and declining gas prices strengthened Democrats in races across the country, to today, when the midterms seem to be returning to a more typical referendum on the incumbent president in which the party out of power makes substantial gains. In our poll, as in others, the GOP has also gained on the congressional ballot test. Twenty days out from Election Day, voters are overwhelmingly focused on the economy and inflation, Republicans are more trusted to handle those issues, and crime beats out abortion as a second-tier issue. We have fresh data this morning from the new POLITICO-Morning Consult poll that shows the national political landscape shifting more firmly toward the Republican Party. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images DRIVING THE DAY Twenty days out from Election Day, fresh polling data shows voters are overwhelmingly focused on the economy and inflation, Republicans are more trusted to handle those issues, and crime beats out abortion as a second-tier issue.
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